MLB · resolved market
Spread: Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf917c2c9539f83e5f0ae3b8377750bfab929ed803f9b1f8eb105a71cf7cb69be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marinersof Mariners, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa983…46a3backed Cardinals | 74c | 12,000$8,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,823.7 | 113 | 45.1%51 W · 62 L | -16.4wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Mariners | 26c | 8,997$2,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,670.32 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…8ce8backed Mariners | 22c | 6,668$1,467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,201.04 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Cardinals | 78c | 6,500$5,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,070 | 358 | 54.5%195 W · 163 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Mariners | 28c | 2,429$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740.41 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Mariners | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Mariners | 10c | 1,496$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.66 | 171 | 56.1%96 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…7004backed Mariners | 50c | 940$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.9 | 217 | 67.7%147 W · 70 L | +36.1wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cardinals | 51c | 617.28$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.35 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Mariners | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 260 | 55%143 W · 117 L | +21.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cardinals | 50c | 369.8$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.9 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Cardinals | 46c | 365.84$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.29 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Cardinals | 52c | 205$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.6 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4e…62d5backed Mariners | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x384a…39c0backed Cardinals | 78c | 155$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Mariners | 38c | 61.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e4…82a8backed Mariners | 50c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Cardinals | 78c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Cardinals vs. MarinersMariners won
- Cardinals vs. Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- NRFI: Cardinals vs. MarinersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.