Music · resolved market
Will GELO drop another Billboard top 100 hit in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9360a888da4c9d3ffa3576068b5be8115a07bb6a3a92d36ff159b6c9ced6d5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc658…6c1bbacked Yes | 70c | 55,177$38,624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,623.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0e…2d95backed No | 30c | 55,177$16,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,623.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,016$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 147 | 8.2%12 W · 135 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 52c | 263.41$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.39 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked No | 18c | 150$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 27c | 139.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7de…4cbebacked No | 54c | 126$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 68c | 117.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 199 | 39.2%78 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4334…ca32backed No | 66c | 114$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…4252backed Yes | 33c | 106.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa518…41e3backed No | 78c | 101$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 22c | 101$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -76%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…bf6fbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x743b…df30backed Yes | 60c | 47.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 36c | 47.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6713…3878backed No | 28c | 40.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 56c | 18.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.