Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf93836531d5dd5d1431c2ae3d1f3c32dcd6c354a9fd4b0b7163876c10e94fb22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c7e…401ebacked Yes | 6c | 771.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 374 | 17.4%65 W · 309 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 72c | 763.41$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.54 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 445.52$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 56c | 292.98$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.48 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 30c | 285$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 259.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 36c | 254.6$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.71 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 228.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa943…f7d2backed Yes | 58c | 199.96$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.98 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 186.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.62 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 38c | 173.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 31c | 167.66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 36c | 153.79$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.04 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 137.49$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 23c | 131.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 116.21$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 39c | 108.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…1674backed Yes | 65c | 98.42$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 69 | 72.5%50 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 15c | 96.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7076…b1e4backed No | 37c | 94.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 43c | 94.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.23 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 60c | 92.65$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 15c | 91.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 42c | 87.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 51c | 84.61$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 43c | 71.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 47c | 64.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 59.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 38c | 53.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 33c | 51.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 50.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 35c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked No | 36c | 48.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 73c | 43.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 55c | 41.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x345a…9dc9backed No | 79c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 52c | 38.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 50c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 48c | 31.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 66c | 29.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 66c | 27.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 39c | 26.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…b70dbacked Yes | 78c | 22.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…070fbacked Yes | 60c | 19.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…bc49backed Yes | 76c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C or higher on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.