AI · resolved market
Google reports Gemini monthly active users above 800M in Q1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9a0fc4be7786f56879fb6d67c6300935beb073544daff8be29fe2bd0bfe4ea8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked No | 65c | 615.24$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…da8dbacked No | 19c | 396.83$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.61 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +105.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee3…c539backed Yes | 74c | 339.61$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.46per pick | 62cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1415…9752backed Yes | 76c | 129.25$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 121.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 72c | 110.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 25c | 54.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 22c | 47.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed No | 80c | 43.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 56c | 22.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 56c | 20.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…8638backed Yes | 74c | 19.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Google reports Gemini monthly active users above 800M in Q1?this page
- Google reports Gemini monthly active users above 1B in Q1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.