Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9aaa70621b97a82e28484aab49935e94fe72c1fd396c0edd3e520d74ae473e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 54c | 369.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.23 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 315.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 64c | 224.01$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.03 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 209.78$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 80c | 186.12$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 185.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 13c | 170.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 166.36$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 59c | 161.76$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 63c | 142.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.14 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 43c | 123.84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 63c | 109.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 57c | 101.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes | 64c | 95$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 90.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked No | 50c | 90$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 51c | 71.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 34c | 58.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 39c | 58.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 39c | 54.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 34c | 46.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 37c | 45.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 75c | 41.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 44c | 39.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 53c | 38.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 36.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 32.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 46c | 28.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…dd86backed No | 51c | 27.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 85 | 64.7%55 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…23c8backed No | 44c | 25.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 58c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 45c | 23.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 23.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 74c | 20.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffeb…f657backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 98-99°F on July 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.