Lol · resolved market
LoL: Orzeł Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken - Game 3 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9aeaaf8142f1f9200a9eec8adb11103cb83c7ce1ce1761d320576bbb91495e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Orzeł Barcząca Esportsof Orzeł Barcząca Esports, Forsaken
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,991 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf201…527ebacked Orzeł Barcząca Esports | 54c | 12,531$6,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,739.65 | 1,304 | 45.2%589 W · 715 L | +50.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…de0fbacked Forsaken | 45c | 8,003$3,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,620.26 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Forsaken | 40c | 3,713$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.16 | 697 | 56.5%394 W · 303 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ea…bbb3backed Forsaken | 60c | 1,738$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.02 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | -11.1wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…4892backed Forsaken | 62c | 998.99$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.85 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x141f…7711backed Orzeł Barcząca Esports | 29c | 600$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426 | 142 | 48.6%69 W · 73 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Forsaken | 56c | 350.79$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.04 | 1,688 | 59.5%1,004 W · 684 L | +99.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Forsaken | 65c | 155.82$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 2,839 | 41.4%1,175 W · 1,664 L | -14.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x458d…8a59backed Forsaken | 22c | 128.27$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Forsaken | 29c | 106.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 285 | 58.6%167 W · 118 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Forsaken | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 955 | 51.7%494 W · 461 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04bd…39a0backed Orzeł Barcząca Esports | 40c | 91.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 1,229 | 45.1%554 W · 675 L | +48.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked Forsaken | 60c | 89.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 155 | 36.8%57 W · 98 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Forsaken | 35c | 68.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 2,378 | 40.9%973 W · 1,405 L | -56.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Forsaken | 31c | 64.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 226 | 17.7%40 W · 186 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca0…38babacked Orzeł Barcząca Esports | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 1,461 | 43.3%632 W · 829 L | +106.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Forsaken | 25c | 48.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1,613 | 17.5%283 W · 1,330 L | -246.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Forsaken | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 214 | 57.5%123 W · 91 L | +13.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Forsaken | 34c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,831 | 17.1%313 W · 1,518 L | -236.0wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Orzeł Barcząca Esports | 63c | 27.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 227 | 58.1%132 W · 95 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…e969backed Orzeł Barcząca Esports | 66c | 22.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 1,253 | 52.8%661 W · 592 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…671fbacked Orzeł Barcząca Esports | 70c | 20.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 134 | 67.2%90 W · 44 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1107…026dbacked Forsaken | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LoL: Orzeł Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken - Game 3 Winnerthis page
- Game Handicap: FSK (-1.5) vs Orzeł Barcząca Esports (+1.5)Orzeł Barcząca Esports won
- Game Handicap: FSK (-2.5) vs Orzeł Barcząca Esports (+2.5)Orzeł Barcząca Esports won
- LoL: Orzeł Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken (BO5) - Rift Legends PlayoffsOrzeł Barcząca Esports won
- LoL: Orzeł Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken - Game 1 WinnerOrzeł Barcząca Esports won
- LoL: Orzeł Barcząca Esports vs Forsaken - Game 2 WinnerOrzeł Barcząca Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.