Ligue 1 · resolved market
Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9c09a58f7841d0df1e252e3c466df242323b3295c374d6b42ff96028cecc30b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Le Havre ACof Olympique Lyonnais, Le Havre AC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,937 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Olympique Lyonnais | 14c | 2,786$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.61 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Olympique Lyonnais | 24c | 2,062$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Le Havre AC | 76c | 1,830$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.62 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Olympique Lyonnais | 14c | 1,158$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.04 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Olympique Lyonnais | 21c | 299.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Olympique Lyonnais | 8c | 222$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaad…c739backed Le Havre AC | 79c | 189.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Le Havre AC | 79c | 149.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 201 | 50.2%101 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…09fcbacked Olympique Lyonnais | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Olympique Lyonnais | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Le Havre AC | 77c | 64.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Le Havre AC | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…31f3backed Olympique Lyonnais | 23c | 56.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Olympique Lyonnais | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1c…782bbacked Olympique Lyonnais | 21c | 48.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Le Havre AC | 77c | 25.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-1.5)this page
- Le Havre AC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Le Havre AC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 1.5Under won
- Le Havre AC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 2.5Under won
- Le Havre AC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 3.5Under won
- Le Havre AC vs. Olympique Lyonnais: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5)Olympique Lyonnais won
- Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5)Le Havre AC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.