Premier League · resolved market
Will Italy win Group B?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9dc21881e8f281f82d32f98d077d2c588d2a723546d1f7f7f1b68303fbb75b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 27c | 1,554$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.58 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 25c | 1,347$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.81 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed Yes | 21c | 1,300$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Yes | 27c | 559.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.1 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd782…6a24backed Yes | 28c | 535.71$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…4ba5backed Yes | 28c | 428.57$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc7…7ca8backed Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 26c | 242.72$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Yes | 28c | 184$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d2…62e0backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed No | 68c | 156.25$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 69c | 123.88$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc84…6f43backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 34c | 57.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 25c | 46.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed No | 71c | 41.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f24…513ebacked No | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe033…472dbacked No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2e…4d83backed No | 78c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Italy win Group B?this page
- Will Croatia win Group B?No won
- Will Spain win Group B?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.