Premier League · resolved market
Will Spain win Group B?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a41886a3be0238e8fcaac2bf6b508da3a7c484bb534819078141b6305b598e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,279
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,279 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 70c | 5,996$4,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6356…1885backed No | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed No | 31c | 2,403$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.51 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked No | 30c | 1,545$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.5 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 50c | 595.76$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.76 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd782…6a24backed Yes | 72c | 535.69$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked No | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 227 | 44.5%101 W · 126 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…7328backed Yes | 69c | 428$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…4ba5backed Yes | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed No | 29c | 191.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…eb52backed Yes | 72c | 180$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c8…1d90backed Yes | 70c | 171.43$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbc…1a97backed Yes | 51c | 152.94$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e97…d9e5backed Yes | 51c | 129.41$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.41 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc224…cd43backed Yes | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -6.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…2478backed No | 28c | 82.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…9d02backed Yes | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…96a2backed Yes | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 35c | 70.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6929…293fbacked Yes | 70c | 50.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…8594backed Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +105%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1553…535ebacked Yes | 71c | 46.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x408f…72aebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +106.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 55c | 35.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 168 | 48.8%82 W · 86 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed No | 46c | 32.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58dc…22edbacked Yes | 71c | 30.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…2e6bbacked Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3f…896dbacked Yes | 70c | 28.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe923…4e3cbacked Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…fd28backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b8…d22fbacked Yes | 71c | 26.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…4faebacked Yes | 57c | 22.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…d92cbacked Yes | 72c | 21.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa52a…feb8backed Yes | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf915…640abacked Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 153 | 28.8%44 W · 109 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Spain win Group B?this page
- Will Croatia win Group B?No won
- Will Italy win Group B?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.