Mls · resolved market
New York Red Bulls vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9e6335a188c0565da618a77a28330eddf2776533f721751128e7983797df5a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Under | 57c | 1,600$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 818.68$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.5 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 55c | 701.75$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.34 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 45c | 466.6$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.63 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 54c | 439.19$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.24 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 51c | 325.86$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.36 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 49c | 320$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 49c | 152$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.04 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Under | 34c | 148.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…810cbacked Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 20c | 106.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 50c | 72.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Over | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 57c | 69.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 28c | 57.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 50c | 56.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 64c | 55.71$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 47c | 52.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 75c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Over | 44c | 33.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Under | 35c | 32.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 56c | 31.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Over | 43c | 31.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 49c | 27.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 64c | 27.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Red Bulls vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 3.5this page
- New York Red Bulls vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 2.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Columbus Crew: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)Columbus Crew won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)Columbus Crew won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.