Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9e7cb9c54b948fde77293c1135482d18b28c10bcec895be4711209d5eb6281e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0335…6ecabacked No | 60c | 623.7$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.35 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +17.4wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 28c | 432.71$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.95 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 402.13$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 15c | 290.66$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 78c | 255.87$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 23c | 211.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 46c | 176.07$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 45c | 173.54$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 48c | 173.41$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 51c | 172.91$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.38 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…d953backed Yes | 74c | 161.25$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.54 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 44c | 130.84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…1bfabacked No | 54c | 116.44$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb99…b393backed Yes | 78c | 102.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.09 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 92.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 66c | 92.3$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.83 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…4af7backed No | 63c | 91.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 65c | 91.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 90$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.62 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 40c | 85.89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 54c | 70.69$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 45c | 66.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 37c | 63.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 22c | 63.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes | 33c | 61.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 57.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 33c | 54.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 52.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 22c | 50.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 31c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 40c | 49.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 37c | 48.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 22c | 46.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 42c | 46.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x278a…dfddbacked No | 50c | 43.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 70c | 42.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe00…b480backed Yes | 41c | 36.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe863…1be9backed Yes | 32c | 34.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 46c | 32.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59ae…fda7backed Yes | 37c | 28.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 73c | 28.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 23.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7453…aee6backed Yes | 50c | 20.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 71c | 19.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 18.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 74c | 16.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.