Serie A · resolved market
Will Parma win on 2025-09-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa1cf2c74d125c07ebe2af5998bba015e49ead099e7b16fccd23cae554b169a1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,590
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 36c | 3,219$1,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.59 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked No | 62c | 2,983$1,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.54 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 38c | 2,974$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.01 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd666…a3fbbacked Yes | 45c | 1,501$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 66c | 1,056$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.17 | 249 | 39.4%98 W · 151 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 35c | 419.21$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.72 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 63c | 400$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Yes | 41c | 348$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.26 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 59c | 344.44$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.22 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 76c | 340$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 60c | 205.77$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.3 | 328 | 43.6%143 W · 185 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 34c | 200$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 34c | 188.6$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 63c | 178.75$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked No | 65c | 161.15$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fc…ea6cbacked Yes | 35c | 140.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 74c | 132$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Yes | 40c | 112.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked Yes | 40c | 99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 40c | 77.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 60c | 74$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Yes | 40c | 56.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 34c | 41.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x484f…28cbbacked Yes | 40c | 28.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 67c | 18.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Parma win on 2025-09-21?this page
- Will US Cremonese vs. Parma end in a draw?Yes won
- Will US Cremonese win on 2025-09-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.