Serie A · resolved market
Will US Cremonese win on 2025-09-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdae659484d0ca4b794a58402226f1b0104ec83c74a4ecdefdedfd434796bafd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,410
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 37c | 60,000$22,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,048.75 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 64c | 24,558$15,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,930.37 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 63c | 10,000$6,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,700 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 64c | 9,198$5,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,308.19 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 63c | 3,934$2,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.53 | 225 | 51.6%116 W · 109 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 67c | 3,189$2,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.24 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 64c | 2,281$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.6 | 333 | 57.4%191 W · 142 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 62c | 2,159$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.15 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed No | 64c | 2,000$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x016e…c700backed No | 66c | 1,680$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…55a0backed Yes | 38c | 1,649$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked No | 63c | 1,400$882 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 63c | 1,365$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.92 | 387 | 44.7%173 W · 214 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 65c | 1,315$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.43 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb377…f621backed No | 62c | 1,133$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked No | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 64c | 984$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.24 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb653…85a4backed No | 64c | 798.44$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed No | 63c | 700$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 36c | 570.95$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 15c | 565.5$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 63c | 562.14$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.98 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 62c | 505.42$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.66 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed No | 64c | 469.78$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.12 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 32c | 454$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.28 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 35c | 428.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.14 | 249 | 39.4%98 W · 151 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked No | 63c | 373.16$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.58 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 33c | 327.26$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.38 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe782…e7d9backed Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 64c | 298.61$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 63c | 294$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.78 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…4345backed No | 63c | 284.33$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 65c | 277.79$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.49 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 63c | 246$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 124 | 52.4%65 W · 59 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 239.35$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb018…8f4bbacked Yes | 37c | 205.62$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Yes | 33c | 200$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2635…5408backed Yes | 31c | 194.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 33c | 194.31$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked No | 63c | 188.57$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.77 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 63c | 184.84$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.39 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 32c | 156.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Yes | 35c | 140$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9493…7988backed Yes | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -42%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fc…ea6cbacked Yes | 36c | 137.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 65c | 118.11$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 37c | 116$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.92 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 36c | 114.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Yes | 31c | 111$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d1…45afbacked Yes | 36c | 75.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 35c | 68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 138 | 40.6%56 W · 82 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2276…307bbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9486…eecdbacked No | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x484f…28cbbacked No | 63c | 22.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 63c | 22.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will US Cremonese win on 2025-09-21?this page
- Will Parma win on 2025-09-21?No won
- Will US Cremonese vs. Parma end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.