Bundesliga · resolved market
Borussia Dortmund vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa253b06e62789a70ff2ba9eda07054967fcd58cf684e2b1da7eb15b52b302e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3102…187cbacked Under | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 3,906$2,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,612.85 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b59…6445backed Over | 63c | 795$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.15 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Over | 63c | 599.71$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.89 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 37c | 499.99$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Under | 38c | 499.93$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.77 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 45c | 444$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.2 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…ea47backed Over | 63c | 396.6$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 53c | 219.59$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.93 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Under | 38c | 158.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 62c | 148.81$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.55 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 62c | 134$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4049…24cbbacked Under | 38c | 111.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 37c | 107.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 47c | 92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 61c | 59.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…79cbbacked Over | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b2…3886backed Over | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727c…c1f5backed Over | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…ba82backed Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Under | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…dfd3backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc8…b60ebacked Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 60c | 29.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 62c | 25.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b06…f4dabacked Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…a73abacked Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…a540backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf0…51b0backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Borussia Dortmund vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5this page
- Borussia Dortmund vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: Borussia Dortmund (-1.5)VfB Stuttgart won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.