TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

F1 · resolved market

Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
F1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,430
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,359

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,430 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in F1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8b32…5950backed No74c3,603$2,682 inLost-$2,682.0414356.6%81 W · 62 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe786…b716backed Yes27c2,746$750 inWon+$1,995.59683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+74.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed No76c2,038$1,558 inLost-$1,557.6512646.8%59 W · 67 L+10.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+35.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed Yes25c1,500$374 inWon+$1,125.96540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+27.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ea…0b14backed Yes24c1,038$250 inWon+$788.171758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes23c1,000$230 inWon+$7702378.3%18 W · 5 L+4.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+39.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked No75c600$450 inLost-$45010051%51 W · 49 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed No75c421.55$314 inLost-$314.339547.4%45 W · 50 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf3…eac3backed Yes56c207$116 inWon+$90.91450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed Yes25c200$50 inWon+$150540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+16.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x61f1…f11ebacked Yes44c136.84$60 inWon+$76.842339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked No71c114.9$82 inLost-$81.587955.7%44 W · 35 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ced…c09cbacked Yes26c100$26 inWon+$741822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-30.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec01…6592backed Yes20c100$20 inWon+$802646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+18.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8a4…418ebacked Yes23c99.98$23 inWon+$76.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b83…41ddbacked Yes29c85.9$25 inWon+$60.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4a2…3308backed Yes25c79.88$20 inWon+$59.912356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+44.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4117…7336backed No74c76.08$56 inLost-$56.31442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked No75c54.82$41 inLost-$41.311266.1%74 W · 38 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3309…be44backed Yes25c46$11 inWon+$34.74231%13 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked No73c40.63$30 inLost-$29.56966.7%46 W · 23 L+8.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+20.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4b29…5a9abacked No55c40$22 inLost-$2211860.2%71 W · 47 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+20.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb9d…e128backed Yes28c37.44$10 inWon+$26.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed No71c32.28$23 inLost-$22.925763.2%36 W · 21 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+12.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9405…eea5backed Yes47c31.72$15 inWon+$16.72425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.