F1 · resolved market

Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb345951e7a63d983817974ce5711363f62c0b827a20d40d0641b8eb7151e6bd3

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 22, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: F1every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,097
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $6,998

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,097 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in F1
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes	30c	2,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$599.99	32	18.8%6 W · 26 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	27cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked No	67c	999.93$670 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$329.98	79	55.7%44 W · 35 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5ea…0b14backed Yes	36c	691.6$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	51cpaid	+9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No	60c	674.66$405 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.39	77	39%30 W · 47 L	+4.0wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	+12%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf802…d91dbacked Yes	40c	650$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	53	34%18 W · 35 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed No	63c	499.99$315 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.37per pick	63cpaid	+58.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes	37c	420$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.4	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4117…7336backed Yes	33c	401.17$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.74	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x083e…c5ffbacked Yes	33c	347.21$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.58	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6149…8a58backed No	64c	300$193 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107	95	47.4%45 W · 50 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x76dc…17b4backed Yes	34c	284.57$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.75	126	46.8%59 W · 67 L	+10.3wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+35.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked No	62c	231.77$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.07	100	51%51 W · 49 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf270…7a37backed No	67c	200$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b0d…1744backed Yes	32c	150$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.5	84	27.4%23 W · 61 L	+3.9wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	+91.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	20c	109.49$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.14	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5927…672bbacked Yes	36c	108$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.32	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8a4…418ebacked Yes	27c	100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.25per pick	25cpaid	+117.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf3…eac3backed Yes	31c	99.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+12%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ce4…fbd1backed Yes	34c	83.57$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.82	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	+59.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	31c	78.65$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.75	376	6.9%26 W · 350 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-67.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0794…0843backed Yes	33c	78.27$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.83	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b9e…4580backed Yes	37c	77.22$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.57	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb152…e8e6backed Yes	55c	63.17$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7849…bf63backed Yes	33c	60.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	24cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes	44c	52.24$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.99	29	55.2%16 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	63cpaid	-17%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb741…3089backed Yes	44c	45.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No	57c	43.26$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.6	213	37.6%80 W · 133 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No	74c	37$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.75	122	46.7%57 W · 65 L	+4.4wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3c7…7070backed Yes	42c	26$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed No	70c	24.5$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.35	57	63.2%36 W · 21 L	+6.0wins	+0.10per pick	53cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf6c0…722ebacked No	53c	22.22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.5	44	72.7%32 W · 12 L	+8.9wins	+0.20per pick	52cpaid	+39.8%equal weight	64+0.13 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No	65c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.05	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2025 F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event