College Football · resolved market
Eastern Illinois vs. Murray State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa38c8c0e7404aec156c197e3573867877cdc0028de8afc51a031a875ea502a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eastern Illinoisof Eastern Illinois, Murray State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Murray State | 65c | 1,455$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Eastern Illinois | 35c | 1,100$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Murray State | 60c | 549.23$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.54 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Eastern Illinois | 40c | 549.23$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Eastern Illinois | 34c | 303.4$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Eastern Illinois | 55c | 230$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Murray State | 68c | 187.16$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.17 | 629 | 43.6%274 W · 355 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Eastern Illinois | 46c | 115.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Eastern Illinois | 43c | 111.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.32 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Murray State | 48c | 78.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ca…6e7ebacked Eastern Illinois | 66c | 76.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Eastern Illinois | 32c | 43.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Eastern Illinois vs. Murray Statethis page
- Eastern Illinois vs. Murray State: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Murray State (-3.5)Eastern Illinois won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.