Other European Leagues · resolved market
Heracles Almelo vs. FC Volendam: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa42737cce84ac280b0f572c9c50a070420231df193a4b85e2b0aa1ff8609c96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf541…ac67backed Over | 64c | 3,073$1,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,956.38 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 2,731$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.11 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 45c | 2,366$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.29 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…440fbacked Over | 2c | 2,300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 1c | 1,755$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 985 | 52.3%515 W · 470 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…38f6backed Over | 48c | 1,217$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Over | 3c | 1,208$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x422c…9840backed Over | 50c | 970$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…0574backed Over | 4c | 850$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 50c | 819$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.5 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Over | 4c | 800$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Over | 4c | 800$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 22c | 630.56$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.23 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 55c | 504.5$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.25 | 191 | 56.5%108 W · 83 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 41c | 467.71$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.11 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d8…0175backed Over | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 101 | 21.8%22 W · 79 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827f…8027backed Under | 56c | 275.35$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 55c | 246.43$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.29 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | +45.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Over | 37c | 235.69$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.41 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 45c | 204.15$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 1,240 | 39.2%486 W · 754 L | -35.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…cb68backed Over | 48c | 199.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee43…ae9dbacked Over | 61c | 198.45$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.09 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -4.5wins | -0.24per pick | 61cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 50c | 194$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 50c | 135.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 343 | 58.9%202 W · 141 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Under | 77c | 129.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 40c | 127.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.54 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 56c | 127.52$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.29 | 338 | 58.6%198 W · 140 L | +30.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…26f7backed Over | 53c | 125.79$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 53c | 121.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.52 | 1,282 | 50.2%644 W · 638 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 56c | 119.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.4 | 347 | 60.8%211 W · 136 L | +33.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 59c | 117.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 938 | 45.4%426 W · 512 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 40c | 91.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9183…59f0backed Over | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1650…42f6backed Under | 37c | 82.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 51c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 513 | 56.3%289 W · 224 L | +23.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 59c | 66.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.02 | 373 | 41.6%155 W · 218 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Over | 60c | 59.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0101…83b4backed Under | 52c | 58.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 59c | 57.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 320 | 51.9%166 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 59c | 57.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 49c | 57.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 40c | 56.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…5584backed Under | 52c | 56.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 40c | 53.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 36c | 53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 357 | 40.6%145 W · 212 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Over | 42c | 51.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 41c | 48.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 163 | 46.6%76 W · 87 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3e…b265backed Under | 52c | 46.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 60c | 45.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 1,434 | 37.7%540 W · 894 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 66c | 42.86$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 437 | 21.7%95 W · 342 L | -49.3wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Under | 59c | 40.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…077dbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Under | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 41c | 36.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 911 | 48%437 W · 474 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 54c | 35.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -9.6wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1956…1ef8backed Under | 42c | 34.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 32.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 2,543 | 52.4%1,333 W · 1,210 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Over | 63c | 31.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8c…e77dbacked Under | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +3.7wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 38c | 28.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 41c | 25.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 536 | 55.2%296 W · 240 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c4…6678backed Under | 76c | 24.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Heracles Almelo vs. FC Volendam: O/U 2.5this page
- Heracles Almelo vs. FC Volendam: O/U 1.5Over won
- Heracles Almelo vs. FC Volendam: O/U 3.5Under won
- Heracles Almelo vs. FC Volendam: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.