MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa65ac225de33d31bb13904d3b5e185139e63c89267a997b45b9fc2bc20a51be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,523
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,523 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x88f1…b325backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 8,140$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,639.53 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.8wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 3,935$2,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,242.81 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 2,523$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.11 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 2,147$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.45 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 2,109$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.47 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 1,404$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$808.32 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 697$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.29 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 654.76$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.76 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 559.91$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.15 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 268.16$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.53 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 264.29$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.29 | 179 | 61.5%110 W · 69 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 250$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 233.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.17 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 151.02$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 122.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.24 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 104.71$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c81…8f47backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 104.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Minnesota Twins | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Minnesota Twins | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 85.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 64.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c99…d91abacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 51.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | -10.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Minnesota Twins | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Minnesota Twins | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 12.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.