Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa6e108a9b1fc0e81fed35e9fef054304c357a6a74abafcb63bf7d8292d0099a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c45…0ac6backed Over | 51c | 3,122$1,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,592.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 2,440$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.99 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 1,092$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.3 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 60c | 895.18$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.79 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 758.54$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.87 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…6d3bbacked Over | 59c | 648.79$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 44c | 499.06$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.39 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 41c | 279.23$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.71 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 56c | 269.48$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.91 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 257.1$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.39 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1f…eb43backed Over | 53c | 220.03$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 59c | 165.32$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.54 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 29c | 163.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.5 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 55c | 140.81$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 73c | 123.38$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.53 | 63 | 66.7%42 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 16c | 118.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 50c | 117.03$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.87 | 110 | 49.1%54 W · 56 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 48c | 112.48$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 43c | 111$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…1b63backed Over | 55c | 108.69$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.47 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce9…ced7backed Over | 57c | 108.14$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Over | 58c | 100.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.49 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 49c | 75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 41c | 62.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6d…bfc5backed Over | 57c | 55.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 59c | 50.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 59c | 48.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f5…3047backed Over | 58c | 33.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Over | 59c | 32.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Over | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Over | 72c | 31.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 49c | 29.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 42c | 28.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 42c | 24.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…b766backed Over | 58c | 20.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -9.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked Over | 59c | 19.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 70c | 19.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Over | 60c | 17.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5this page
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Hannover 96: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Hannover 96: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Hannover 96: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. Hannover 96: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Hannover 96 (-1.5)Hannover 96 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.