UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa94d2f195cd5548e43e89fc3ed1ecb99ec49e18b105ffefc8664f46de834fac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 41c | 5,000$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5227…f9bdbacked Over | 59c | 4,777$2,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,958.59 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Under | 41c | 2,700$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.98 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…7fecbacked Over | 79c | 1,405$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.32 | 54 | 92.6%50 W · 4 L | +20.8wins | +0.39per pick | 54cpaid | +361.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…8132backed Under | 4c | 1,100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 44 | 6.8%3 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ad…a5cabacked Over | 59c | 677.97$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.97 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 58c | 534.25$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.06 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Over | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 43c | 500$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Over | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…c511backed Over | 59c | 237.29$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.29 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…0ab8backed Under | 42c | 195$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed Under | 44c | 57.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Under | 44c | 57.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 155 | 56.8%88 W · 67 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9386…cfe5backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x521c…64d2backed Over | 58c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Over | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed Over | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1703backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Over | 58c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Over | 58c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f8…31e9backed Over | 59c | 27.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6468…e03dbacked Over | 58c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a1…06e5backed Under | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC 325: Elekana vs. Tafa (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)Elekana won
- Will Billy Elekana win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Junior Tafa win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.