Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will AEK Lárnakas win on 2025-10-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa987da17046c5a31415dd4dc013d96b3f050d865e3ef136f37811671152210e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 57c | 4,866$2,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,779.08 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 6c | 4,354$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,095.21 | 260 | 22.3%58 W · 202 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…dd84backed Yes | 38c | 3,831$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,390.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +166%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed3…a8dbbacked Yes | 9c | 2,433$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,224.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,064.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc478…d2e2backed No | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d80…44aebacked Yes | 8c | 1,145$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +513.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 5c | 1,074$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.7 | 190 | 27.4%52 W · 138 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Yes | 49c | 1,029$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…8723backed Yes | 10c | 992.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +892.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…5696backed No | 53c | 682$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.77 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x400f…e712backed Yes | 41c | 612.21$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +142%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 37c | 541.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.19 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…aad4backed Yes | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…6116backed Yes | 54c | 482.5$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 4c | 256.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a0…f9d1backed Yes | 7c | 238$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +147.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Yes | 48c | 200$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…dac9backed No | 44c | 199.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.39 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…62d9backed Yes | 54c | 152.26$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…2823backed Yes | 56c | 114.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.91 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x151f…807dbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc394…315dbacked No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 49c | 77.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.71 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff3…bbf7backed Yes | 40c | 75.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked No | 74c | 67.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…b0d2backed No | 71c | 65$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x230a…2704backed Yes | 56c | 62.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc876…faa5backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…9897backed Yes | 44c | 45.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 62 | 9.7%6 W · 56 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a4…1d88backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AEK Lárnakas win on 2025-10-23?this page
- Will Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas end in a draw?No won
- Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-10-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.