MLB · resolved market
Cubs vs. Brewers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfab94232cbf5069d290ed95b14b6aeae360c1c6cdba224fd38f82bc0743d9d67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brewersof Cubs, Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Brewers | 50c | 18,716$9,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,376.83 | 279 | 48.4%135 W · 144 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cubs | 50c | 11,908$5,953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,952.51 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7379…0182backed Cubs | 0c | 10,271$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ba…d879backed Brewers | 54c | 2,304$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.41 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Cubs | 46c | 2,122$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$985.51 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Cubs | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd656…d127backed Brewers | 48c | 1,920$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.4 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cubs | 51c | 1,570$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.72 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Brewers | 48c | 1,447$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.28 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Cubs | 52c | 1,385$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Cubs | 53c | 992.37$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd8…4fabbacked Cubs | 56c | 891.7$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.35 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cubs | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Cubs | 52c | 594$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.88 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Brewers | 58c | 592.52$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.71 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Cubs | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Cubs | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Cubs | 43c | 397.89$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Cubs | 53c | 340.74$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Cubs | 54c | 340$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.6 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Brewers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Cubs | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cubs | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cubs | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Cubs | 46c | 186.95$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cubs | 50c | 166.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cubs | 51c | 160.16$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…ccb7backed Brewers | 50c | 140.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.01 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Brewers | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Cubs | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Cubs | 52c | 78.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Cubs | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…ddfabacked Cubs | 50c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cubs | 52c | 51.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Brewers | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b32…993dbacked Cubs | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Cubs | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cubs | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…d681backed Cubs | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 743 | 56.9%423 W · 320 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Cubs | 52c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…91e9backed Cubs | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.