Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfac0347478efbb481355ca5359453c14d4385a295af68aa024539f34f98ad024
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 14c | 1,881$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.04 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe636…69d0backed No | 2c | 1,587$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 78c | 1,170$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.24 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8d…7a59backed No | 3c | 697.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 315.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.09 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff78…df44backed Yes | 49c | 257.61$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.53 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +16.2wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 70c | 214.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.3 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 15c | 201.96$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.89 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x514f…2be0backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 199.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.96 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 9c | 197.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 25c | 180.88$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.74 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 40c | 168.26$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.66 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 61c | 164.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdf…a680backed Yes | 15c | 145.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.94 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 118.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 78c | 117.57$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 16c | 111.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.01 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f75…1e53backed Yes | 13c | 109.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf032…2b49backed Yes | 14c | 106.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.13 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 13c | 96.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.61 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Yes | 30c | 89.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 45c | 76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 72.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfc31…63a1backed Yes | 17c | 68.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed Yes | 20c | 67.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.37 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 21c | 59.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 19c | 57.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 72c | 49.14$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…9397backed Yes | 79c | 48.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2545…91d9backed No | 41c | 43.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +36%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…023dbacked Yes | 47c | 42.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 27c | 40.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 66c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x426b…6bb8backed Yes | 68c | 38.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.62 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad62…2aa9backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 165 | 32.7%54 W · 111 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ecf…f730backed Yes | 67c | 29.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd35c…0d5dbacked Yes | 52c | 29.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +791.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 80c | 28.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 64c | 27.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 37c | 27.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 66c | 27.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 75c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…ef34backed No | 55c | 26.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc8…a5f0backed No | 42c | 26.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e1…a2bfbacked Yes | 53c | 23.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 72c | 22.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe01b…a447backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac8…0837backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.