Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Groningen vs. NAC Breda: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfac2b6b10f6ca3f58d566c035e4d6bed0c3930a62ff399bdf0abf79c21008b54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 3,059$1,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.3 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 76c | 2,000$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 43c | 1,969$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,115.82 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 269 | 49.8%134 W · 135 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…1f3cbacked Over | 76c | 828.35$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 62c | 806.45$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 316 | 61.7%195 W · 121 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 75c | 523.33$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 205 | 72.2%148 W · 57 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 15c | 413.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Under | 24c | 334.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.28 | 84 | 29.8%25 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ed…42f5backed Under | 55c | 278.18$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cb…c61ebacked Over | 32c | 239.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.30per pick | 49cpaid | +75%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x72e6…7bf4backed Over | 32c | 160$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 24c | 128.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.38 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9eb…8be1backed Over | 76c | 98.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 69c | 86.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 252 | 63.5%160 W · 92 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 51c | 70.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 357 | 40.6%145 W · 212 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…807dbacked Over | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcb…1879backed Over | 62c | 54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd283…51ecbacked Under | 25c | 42.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 16cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 78c | 41.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 162 | 48.1%78 W · 84 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 250 | 46.8%117 W · 133 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…bc89backed Over | 76c | 25.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…2024backed Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 57c | 17.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Groningen vs. NAC Breda: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Groningen vs. NAC Breda: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Groningen vs. NAC Breda: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Groningen vs. NAC Breda: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Groningen (-1.5)NAC Breda won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.