Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Groningen vs. NAC Breda: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cb78a6a288ef38faa9cfe2718ebdcf3d50f44eb82e4a1672c621c3ee1cb8290
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x011c…31dfbacked Under | 50c | 2,399$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.64 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 11c | 811.55$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.63 | 84 | 29.8%25 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 50c | 798.82$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.91 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 50c | 531$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.5 | 70 | 42.9%30 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 50c | 352.43$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.39 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 16c | 261.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.23 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Under | 49c | 221.98$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.21 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 853 | 40.1%342 W · 511 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 50c | 138$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 366 | 47.3%173 W · 193 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Under | 50c | 136$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…21eebacked Over | 53c | 121.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Under | 50c | 106$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Under | 50c | 86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…9baebacked Over | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed Over | 50c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Over | 50c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5935…b8dabacked Over | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…8137backed Over | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -5.0wins | -0.45per pick | 63cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Over | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ab…3e5cbacked Under | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 61cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…d746backed Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9b…0bc0backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0e…2b59backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Groningen vs. NAC Breda: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Groningen vs. NAC Breda: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Groningen vs. NAC Breda: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Groningen vs. NAC Breda: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Groningen (-1.5)NAC Breda won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.