Other European Leagues · resolved market
FC Groningen vs. NAC Breda: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e3ab550d278dfae877bc1c46f0ca7246851656b111ec3fcfbc39e4d202bd970
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,329
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,329 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 80c | 7,500$6,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 75cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 20c | 5,629$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146.78 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 10c | 1,248$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.37 | 84 | 29.8%25 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2668…2c56backed Over | 29c | 606.52$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 30c | 218.54$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.16 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 72c | 186$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 72c | 182.3$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4138…6a24backed Under | 75c | 133$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 26c | 120.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 24c | 105.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 74c | 90.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Under | 72c | 84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 70c | 68.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 490 | 46.9%230 W · 260 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Under | 72c | 58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 68c | 45.36$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Over | 28c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x608b…6e88backed Over | 28c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked Over | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Over | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 381 | 47.5%181 W · 200 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0e…2b59backed Under | 72c | 35.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed Under | 80c | 16.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f50…d342backed Under | 70c | 15.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed Under | 80c | 14.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 77cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Groningen vs. NAC Breda: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Groningen vs. NAC Breda: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Groningen vs. NAC Breda: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Groningen vs. NAC Breda: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Groningen (-1.5)NAC Breda won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.