CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs illwill (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaccb7dc86bbc4ecee908b1b5c4907c60409a22307a13ea60f75de6e79a83a0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof ECSTATIC, illwill
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked illwill | 51c | 1,034$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.5 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…c4d7backed ECSTATIC | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked ECSTATIC | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 750 | 56.8%426 W · 324 L | +47.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed illwill | 21c | 915.83$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.8 | 350 | 33.4%117 W · 233 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd382…8885backed ECSTATIC | 75c | 854.16$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e2e…b5a5backed ECSTATIC | 9c | 819.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 138 | 47.1%65 W · 73 L | +18.3wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed illwill | 28c | 799.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.99 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed ECSTATIC | 22c | 590.29$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.18 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a3…9a3bbacked illwill | 54c | 555.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.29 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed ECSTATIC | 58c | 409.42$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.43 | 783 | 48.4%379 W · 404 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked illwill | 26c | 351.92$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.79 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ECSTATIC | 29c | 298.2$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae6…eb63backed ECSTATIC | 10c | 267.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf264…9e0fbacked ECSTATIC | 80c | 229.79$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.83 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked illwill | 50c | 211.75$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.88 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…4ecebacked illwill | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6084…e875backed illwill | 36c | 151.75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.75 | 101 | 52.5%53 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x411e…ea8bbacked ECSTATIC | 14c | 150.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdc…dce8backed ECSTATIC | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked ECSTATIC | 26c | 123.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 1,623 | 44.9%728 W · 895 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ECSTATIC | 60c | 105.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a7…164bbacked illwill | 49c | 105$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 334 | 59%197 W · 137 L | +24.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8912…1712backed ECSTATIC | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 277 | 35.7%99 W · 178 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa100…60e1backed ECSTATIC | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 137 | 37.2%51 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed illwill | 50c | 71.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…fa37backed ECSTATIC | 61c | 54.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1939…22e8backed illwill | 33c | 51.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…c3c8backed illwill | 38c | 40.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 166 | 53%88 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972c…c2e2backed ECSTATIC | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…d823backed illwill | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f54…93d5backed illwill | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…94f3backed ECSTATIC | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…47f6backed illwill | 78c | 16.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs illwill (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs illwill - Map 2 WinnerECSTATIC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.