South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-10-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfae8a41a883d6054ec2be9b9db71d549e71036ed7a4b1196a3dc80402a8a23b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Yes | 29c | 6,981$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 71c | 4,626$3,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,337.37 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 3,503$2,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.25 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 28c | 1,438$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.51 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 71c | 1,240$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.72 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 28c | 1,227$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.35 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 23c | 1,053$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.79 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 72c | 870.43$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.72 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 72c | 793.98$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.31 | 75 | 72%54 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 30c | 614$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.42 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…1feabacked Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdefe…5432backed No | 72c | 324.43$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 71c | 258.82$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 30c | 202$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 88 | 8%7 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5abd…dfcfbacked Yes | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf9…6cd8backed Yes | 28c | 121.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 30c | 71.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 27c | 62.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc668…f670backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd3…6574backed Yes | 31c | 58.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 44c | 57.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…9ab4backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 44c | 45.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd330…3e50backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 68c | 26.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3a…e898backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1473…9917backed No | 70c | 15.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-10-15?this page
- Will CA Mineiro vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-10-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.