South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Mineiro vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec0b76a553608288b5090eb759dd8e28d557b9093ff0a5fd942f11aab5a70b59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 20c | 10,084$2,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,030.17 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 79c | 4,556$3,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.81 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…bdafbacked No | 25c | 3,025$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x965f…f167backed Yes | 31c | 1,469$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9b…4193backed No | 69c | 1,466$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 14c | 1,243$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.89 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 63c | 993.35$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.92 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d2…6b85backed Yes | 32c | 860$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 74c | 825$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.41 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…05efbacked Yes | 76c | 756.41$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 22c | 594.53$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.9 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 30c | 467.98$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.59 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 23c | 256$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 30c | 231$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.7 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 30c | 225$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfa…bfe0backed No | 25c | 222.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f14…84ddbacked Yes | 77c | 192.65$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.31 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d7…5af0backed Yes | 62c | 159.81$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…ff19backed No | 25c | 100.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked Yes | 51c | 99.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 30c | 97.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Yes | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b6…cfe5backed Yes | 67c | 69.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6efc…0836backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5abd…dfcfbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b8…d54cbacked Yes | 55c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fba…1404backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…551dbacked Yes | 54c | 23.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Mineiro vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?this page
- Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-10-15?No won
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-10-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.