South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-10-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04e5d0adec83e5646df00f28046b058d823529be11b58ac3b0b1555e608cbd7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,623
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,623 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 39c | 30,000$11,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,700 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 61c | 21,471$13,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,373.69 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 61c | 5,605$3,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,211.26 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 4,315$2,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,663.24 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…e181backed Yes | 43c | 1,999$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.73 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 58c | 1,466$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.71 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 59c | 1,287$759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.44 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7e…a485backed No | 59c | 1,010$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…f12dbacked Yes | 41c | 1,010$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$414.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae2b…9cc3backed No | 58c | 910.33$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…2cadbacked Yes | 42c | 909.95$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 61c | 650$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 61c | 600$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Yes | 43c | 565$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.95 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 42c | 474.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 37c | 471.07$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.65 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…bdafbacked No | 61c | 440.5$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.41 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked No | 76c | 264.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 37c | 253.66$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9342…6e58backed Yes | 42c | 240.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 61c | 225$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 65c | 213$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.64 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…cd67backed Yes | 43c | 181.28$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Yes | 39c | 150$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed No | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5abd…dfcfbacked Yes | 41c | 148$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed No | 60c | 125$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 88 | 8%7 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…5964backed Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…f9e9backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…2276backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3a5bbacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe274…dc85backed Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 41c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 88 | 29.5%26 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 59c | 30.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc02…958abacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…2d33backed Yes | 42c | 28.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 130 | 62.3%81 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfa…bfe0backed No | 61c | 17.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-10-15?this page
- Will CA Mineiro vs. Cruzeiro EC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-10-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.