TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9342…6e58

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
80
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Bundesliga, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Bundesliga at 53 out of 100; worst Ligue 1 at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT2433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-46.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Champions League — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$29.03
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$102.08
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$158
Will Newcastle United win on 2025-10-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$139.31
Will Fluminense beat Mamelodi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$47.74
Will Flamengo beat LAFC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Bayern Munich beat Benfica?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$40.52
Will Palmeiras beat Inter Miami?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will FC Porto beat Al Ahly?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Al Ahly beat FC Porto?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Inter Miami beat Palmeiras?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.56
Will Atlético Madrid beat Botafogo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+96.1%+$49.96
Will Botafogo beat Atlético Madrid?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Atlético Madrid vs. Botafogo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.01
Will RB Salzburg beat Al Hilal?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Al Hilal beat RB Salzburg?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$39.89
Will Pachuca beat Real Madrid?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$47
Will Real Madrid vs. Pachuca end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Real Madrid beat Pachuca?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$5.58
Will Juventus beat Wydad AC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$10.5
Will Monterrey beat River Plate?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.25
Will Fluminense beat Ulsan Hyundai?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$18.57
Will Inter Milan beat Urawa Red Diamonds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$9.86
Will Borussia Dortmund beat Mamelodi Sundowns?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$8.99
All 24 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Oct 20, 2025, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-10-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$200.31
Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-10-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$107.69
Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2025-10-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2025-10-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-10-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$85.71
Will CA Lanús win on 2025-10-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+252.5%+$393.9
Will CA Sarmiento win on 2025-10-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$41.63
Will CA Newell's Old Boys win on 2025-10-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Will CD Riestra win on 2025-10-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-09-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2025-09-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$646Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+83.9%+$541.84
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$14.06
Will Estonia win on 2025-10-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$501Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$500.72
Will Switzerland win on 2025-10-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$400
Will Poland win on 2025-10-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$581Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$204.12
Will Portugal win on 2025-10-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$930Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT+27.2%+$252.88
Will Georgia win on 2025-10-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
Will Latvia win on 2025-10-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$632Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$631.96
Will United States win on 2025-10-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Switzerland win on 2025-10-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$185.71
Will Romania win on 2025-10-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$473Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT+29.3%+$138.36
All 10 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Oct 20, 2025, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-44.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
La Liga — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alaves win on 2025-10-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$95
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$251
Will Elche CF win on 2025-10-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$40.85
Will Barcelona win on 2025-09-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$820Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT+37%+$303.47
Will Alaves win on 2025-09-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-09-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$128.57
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$417Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$139.08
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$400
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick57cpaid-77.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Oct 15, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-64.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Penguins vs. Ducksbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Golden Knights vs. Krakenbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Flames vs. Canucksbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Kings vs. Golden Knightsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$245.17
All 4 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-51.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Bucksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Magic vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+45.2%+$23.97
Bucks vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$200
All 3 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Oct 23, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Oct 4, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayern München win on 2025-10-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+37%+$27
Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-10-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$33.95
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Oct 27, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Porto win on 2025-10-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$11.28
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-10-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$270Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+37%+$99.84
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Sep 29, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+85.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Everton vs. West Ham end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$270.37
Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$76
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USAbacked Dominican Rep. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.79
Blue Jays vs. Dodgersbacked Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+51.7%+$12.94
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Oct 28, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Napoli win on 2025-10-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+53.9%+$65.84
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.