South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-09-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7244213939459c65d0a0e381ebf068754cb9492273fff61c80500bd19e4978ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,609
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,609 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 64c | 3,662$2,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.38 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c47…5a56backed Yes | 24c | 1,044$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +131.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 60c | 696.52$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.86 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Yes | 50c | 562.06$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -4.0wins | -0.44per pick | 55cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 15c | 433$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Yes | 39c | 411.89$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa421…c61fbacked Yes | 45c | 270.89$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 42c | 240.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 404 | 42.1%170 W · 234 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…cd67backed Yes | 46c | 217.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7862…46abbacked Yes | 47c | 217.53$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9342…6e58backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Yes | 32c | 187.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 39c | 141.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…c742backed Yes | 23c | 90.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…3f0abacked Yes | 48c | 83.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…9b3cbacked No | 56c | 77$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c3…d618backed No | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Yes | 44c | 69.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 54c | 49.31$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…4f6cbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…9530backed Yes | 46c | 30.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…5a9ebacked Yes | 41c | 29.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…cd54backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-09-25?this page
- Will Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?No won
- Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-09-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.