South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-09-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9673eec8bc084eae230e68e334fb805622db4f7c0023ffaa750e13535c850db3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 28c | 5,100$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,696.9 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 73c | 2,870$2,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,082.64 | 75 | 72%54 W · 21 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 75c | 1,955$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.67 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9920…8f8ebacked Yes | 24c | 1,224$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed No | 76c | 1,200$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 48c | 1,100$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.15 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 75c | 800$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 25c | 800$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed No | 74c | 439.57$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.28 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 72c | 318.7$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.73 | 124 | 65.3%81 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc6…4ddebacked No | 43c | 300$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 65c | 299.92$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.28 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 76cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed No | 78c | 256.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 25c | 202.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6b…8115backed Yes | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…7650backed No | 74c | 126.92$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.92 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd7…95f6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 39c | 91.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d1…817ebacked No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…8e9fbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…e838backed Yes | 70c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Yes | 29c | 75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 25c | 63.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2025-09-25?this page
- Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-09-25?No won
- Will Estudiantes de La Plata vs. CR Flamengo end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.