South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-10-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a2bf80a4fdda9ae3939e8c9b5fee0f20067efd57c8e640630d57fd1ed8ff21b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,561
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,561 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 73c | 25,000$18,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,750 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 27c | 23,304$6,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,292.08 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 34c | 1,806$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.94 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed No | 27c | 1,591$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.61 | 144 | 22.9%33 W · 111 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 28c | 1,371$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.14 | 436 | 18.8%82 W · 354 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…e181backed Yes | 66c | 1,257$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.29 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 47c | 1,204$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.01 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc23b…24f9backed Yes | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 26c | 999.97$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed No | 26c | 877.01$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.02 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 71c | 747.07$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.65 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 74c | 675.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.68 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 33c | 655.59$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.95 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc36…1fa0backed Yes | 70c | 636.44$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54a…b034backed Yes | 74c | 540.54$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 26c | 534.17$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.68 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 57c | 470$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.51 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 51c | 392$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.08 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 40c | 317.77$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.27 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9342…6e58backed Yes | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3e33backed No | 28c | 280$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c6…fb27backed Yes | 72c | 280$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 48c | 274$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.52 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 71c | 225$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…409fbacked No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5949…89dabacked Yes | 73c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…293ebacked No | 27c | 187.67$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e73…e5c1backed Yes | 73c | 187.67$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…2381backed Yes | 73c | 164.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 30c | 155$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 27c | 149.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 312 | 26.6%83 W · 229 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0f…ed5fbacked Yes | 72c | 143$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf7…9732backed No | 27c | 143$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…cd67backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2408…9de9backed No | 29c | 136.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…895cbacked Yes | 74c | 135.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4944…e4c7backed Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 26c | 114$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…e2c4backed No | 26c | 95.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2710…b906backed Yes | 74c | 85.55$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8097…8a5fbacked Yes | 34c | 79.41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked No | 26c | 74.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 47c | 59.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fab…01e9backed Yes | 74c | 54.95$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd6…5a9cbacked Yes | 73c | 54.1$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd71…6714backed Yes | 73c | 52.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 71cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 72c | 51.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7db…07f0backed Yes | 73c | 50.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ce…0e38backed No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…a202backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5240…8f9cbacked Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdd…3a5bbacked Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 27c | 38.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 125 | 62.4%78 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…2276backed Yes | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f43…1754backed Yes | 63c | 33.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x994f…2f7dbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…f9e9backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9184…415dbacked Yes | 73c | 22.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540c…a634backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…2a5ebacked Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecb…7824backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587f…1d4abacked Yes | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc13e…d3fdbacked Yes | 73c | 17.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe790…3e46backed Yes | 74c | 14.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba5c…fe6abacked Yes | 74c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-10-16?this page
- Will EC Juventude win on 2025-10-16?No won
- Will Fluminense FC vs. EC Juventude end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.