Fifa International · resolved market
Will United States win on 2025-10-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60407848a3a6fbe258f6304bfa082de2866147b005179ca1cb7eca4a84723978
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 75c | 3,661$2,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.85 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 38c | 1,515$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.61 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 1,357$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.6 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 61c | 1,148$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.26 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bff…e03abacked Yes | 21c | 700$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…71fdbacked Yes | 39c | 684.95$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.93 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 39c | 658.56$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.44 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 61c | 520.86$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.14 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bf…dfb9backed Yes | 19c | 442.86$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 14c | 410.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 12c | 332.64$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 37c | 299.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 22c | 260.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 102 | 63.7%65 W · 37 L | +11.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 259.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 39c | 258.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9342…6e58backed Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8914…7386backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…c94dbacked Yes | 42c | 240.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 40c | 211.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.79 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd87…01a9backed Yes | 40c | 199$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.61 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfa…faa4backed Yes | 39c | 156.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.92 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked No | 72c | 148$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 61c | 128.56$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 120 | 47.5%57 W · 63 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 115.51$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…5c69backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…a4edbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8874…0b31backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked No | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfb…2398backed Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 62c | 83.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ce…bca1backed Yes | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 104 | 31.7%33 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…2cbcbacked Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x841a…42acbacked No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd072…f8b6backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5242…5a2cbacked Yes | 39c | 41.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 37c | 40.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08e…646dbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 62cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will United States win on 2025-10-10?this page
- Will Ecuador win on 2025-10-10?No won
- Will United States vs. Ecuador end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.