Fifa International · resolved market
Will Ecuador win on 2025-10-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8397d9dc5689f0e62bfbbe15792de05d19ac7d84e698bdfe9021cf7790ac376f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 7,045$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 34c | 4,100$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,383.5 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 66c | 1,587$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.62 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 65c | 1,431$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.38 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2f…ef1abacked No | 67c | 899.96$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.99 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +11.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked No | 67c | 828.7$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.47 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 68c | 691$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.55 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 35c | 647.71$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.56 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 35c | 607.94$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.38 | 363 | 49.3%179 W · 184 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 33c | 600$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 68c | 509.64$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.25 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 67c | 481.47$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.19 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Yes | 33c | 454.55$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bf…dfb9backed Yes | 33c | 358.78$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.23 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8914…7386backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40d…7729backed Yes | 29c | 347.72$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 30c | 333.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 65c | 260.44$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.16 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x969b…7f79backed No | 70c | 143.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 22c | 115.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 343 | 30%103 W · 240 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 107.61$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 68c | 100.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d7…e8c6backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8483…649fbacked Yes | 33c | 90.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…6d23backed Yes | 19c | 68.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424d…c756backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes | 38c | 42.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825a…ece6backed Yes | 34c | 34.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…2a5ebacked Yes | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…2861backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1c…06c9backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…fd63backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ecuador win on 2025-10-10?this page
- Will United States vs. Ecuador end in a draw?Yes won
- Will United States win on 2025-10-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.