Champions League · resolved market
Will Real Madrid vs. Pachuca end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5633c21ebb51ce260388f5a1b8cb84475971920068c22464e41314354a77a0ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fcb…0426backed Yes | 30c | 3,754$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,121.72 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 70c | 3,300$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,045$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Yes | 17c | 834.29$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 19c | 827.14$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.88 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 74c | 782.81$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.21 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed No | 77c | 560$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.7 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a3…c781backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a77…3e50backed Yes | 36c | 166.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 11c | 164.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 17c | 140$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…e866backed Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 15c | 117.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9342…6e58backed Yes | 18c | 110.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac1c…9faebacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5598…0f47backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 74c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Madrid vs. Pachuca end in a draw?this page
- Will Pachuca beat Real Madrid?No won
- Will Real Madrid beat Pachuca?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.