Champions League · resolved market
Will Pachuca beat Real Madrid?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14aa7db66ec6d6b876264778e0947de399330e99e0bcf11c3116ef57b89708cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,804
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,804 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 9c | 20,285$1,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,770.12 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 31c | 12,891$3,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,950.12 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +81%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 68c | 10,789$7,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,468.37 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 70c | 9,032$6,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,713.62 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +12.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Yes | 32c | 6,458$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,060.43 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf17e…0200backed Yes | 31c | 4,814$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +116.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 0c | 3,481$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 69c | 3,455$2,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.74 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 7c | 2,799$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.93 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,109$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.6 | 285 | 43.9%125 W · 160 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 32c | 1,200$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.72 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 69c | 1,170$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.3 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 15c | 1,123$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.96 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d5…ac1ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,040$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.91 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Yes | 10c | 800$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed No | 70c | 750$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 72c | 489$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.92 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9342…6e58backed Yes | 11c | 421.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Yes | 7c | 399.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 30c | 399.17$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Yes | 8c | 245.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…6939backed Yes | 18c | 232.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed No | 75c | 230$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 69c | 226.68$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…3e7ebacked No | 73c | 204.55$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…6578backed No | 76c | 200.14$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04f2…6fe4backed No | 73c | 199.99$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 32c | 172.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 10c | 141$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x013b…01cfbacked Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed No | 73c | 120$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa22…62a5backed Yes | 32c | 103.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…2f32backed Yes | 12c | 98.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 26c | 69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe968…b93fbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd18…a458backed Yes | 32c | 63.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33f…fedbbacked No | 73c | 37.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed No | 73c | 23.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ed82backed No | 74c | 23.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x568b…983abacked No | 74c | 20.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed No | 68c | 15.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Pachuca beat Real Madrid?this page
- Will Real Madrid beat Pachuca?Yes won
- Will Real Madrid vs. Pachuca end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.