Champions League · resolved market
Will Al Ahly beat FC Porto?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87c37f4a6e6be812cd5c90e6e0ad3e95d7f7beed55d1f7e1aa9007c97437fbb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,720
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,720 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 32c | 9,269$3,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,001.58 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 43c | 8,524$3,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,669.99 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 60c | 6,036$3,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,386.44 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 70c | 5,381$3,773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,608.02 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 23c | 3,050$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.5 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed Yes | 20c | 3,005$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 23c | 2,873$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.1 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 77c | 2,644$2,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.12 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Yes | 19c | 1,263$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 32c | 1,126$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.34 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 71c | 1,083$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.02 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 54c | 1,022$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.19 | 204 | 62.3%127 W · 77 L | +19.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Yes | 30c | 1,004$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.23 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 80c | 615$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 66c | 572.18$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.58 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 43c | 516$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.88 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 20c | 413.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.79 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Yes | 18c | 399.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…f540backed Yes | 44c | 360.36$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.56 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…090cbacked Yes | 40c | 351.03$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…4d22backed No | 77c | 260$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.8 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 78c | 252$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.24 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Yes | 11c | 245.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f2…6fe4backed No | 52c | 192$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 70c | 163.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e0…8d86backed Yes | 19c | 123.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9342…6e58backed Yes | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddf…a7a8backed Yes | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 79c | 86.81$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 73c | 68.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 78c | 63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 74c | 61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 291 | 42.3%123 W · 168 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed No | 73c | 60.52$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…456dbacked Yes | 41c | 58.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Yes | 27c | 50.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…04cbbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47fc…b576backed Yes | 45c | 40.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ed…7aeabacked Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec43…efdcbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0b…7ba7backed Yes | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3380…3d37backed No | 80c | 22.75$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 71cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…73eabacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc47…c9b7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa9…fdb5backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 72cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Al Ahly beat FC Porto?this page
- Will FC Porto beat Al Ahly?No won
- Will FC Porto vs. Al Ahly end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.