Champions League · resolved market
Will FC Porto vs. Al Ahly end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x849b4f6988e92a13e66289b417cdd41d92312543bb71f2bce8af6683fef52d9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,495
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 37c | 6,920$2,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,392.43 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 66c | 4,414$2,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,896 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcb…0426backed Yes | 24c | 4,153$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,162.27 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed No | 71c | 2,756$1,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,951.6 | 125 | 36.8%46 W · 79 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 76c | 2,415$1,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,825.36 | 204 | 62.3%127 W · 77 L | +19.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 76c | 1,734$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.64 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 70c | 1,047$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.91 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 60c | 1,038$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.99 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 74c | 680$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.54 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Yes | 18c | 609.94$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.15 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 10c | 517.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 30c | 516$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.2 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 77c | 498.17$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.59 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…a286backed Yes | 23c | 436.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.85 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Yes | 22c | 400$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed No | 78c | 321.33$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Yes | 31c | 292.81$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 187 | 58.8%110 W · 77 L | +18.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…d0c5backed Yes | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 9c | 181.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…893abacked Yes | 24c | 175$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Yes | 25c | 166.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.67 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 21c | 133.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.23 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 23c | 121.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.38 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34e3…5aa8backed No | 79c | 72.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…04cbbacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…136bbacked No | 77c | 34.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +305.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…587bbacked No | 77c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Porto vs. Al Ahly end in a draw?this page
- Will Al Ahly beat FC Porto?No won
- Will FC Porto beat Al Ahly?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.