Champions League · resolved market
Will Atlético Madrid vs. Botafogo end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff4393901efdd2b1db207e2cf3282d76b6afa3ea463c94f03a13deb72878b1fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fcb…0426backed Yes | 25c | 40,020$10,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,005 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 75c | 39,865$29,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,967.48 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec2…aebbbacked Yes | 25c | 10,278$2,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,582 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 75c | 8,291$6,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,105.65 | 123 | 59.3%73 W · 50 L | +12.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…25b0backed Yes | 70c | 5,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 286 | 43.7%125 W · 161 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 64c | 3,497$2,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.6 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…fbcebacked No | 76c | 2,926$2,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.24 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 26c | 2,750$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.25 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x273a…840abacked Yes | 35c | 2,750$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 54c | 2,483$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.96 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed No | 30c | 2,008$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,405.77 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f137backed Yes | 34c | 1,853$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.23 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Yes | 3c | 1,708$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 51c | 1,612$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.28 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…5981backed Yes | 26c | 1,538$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…342ebacked Yes | 36c | 1,410$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed No | 75c | 1,183$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.28 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 24c | 999.98$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Yes | 4c | 875.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 6c | 870.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Yes | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 75c | 647$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.75 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ff…ca90backed No | 67c | 613.82$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.7 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 26c | 600$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ef…b4d9backed Yes | 35c | 575.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x030c…521bbacked Yes | 63c | 500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8704…4b8dbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdca0…140ebacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 8c | 375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80b1…f64abacked Yes | 31c | 364.84$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf662…3e84backed Yes | 44c | 295.53$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 65c | 290$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.3 | 217 | 44.7%97 W · 120 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…b128backed Yes | 37c | 270.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 75c | 240$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.22 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Yes | 25c | 200.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b9…66acbacked Yes | 33c | 193.94$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Yes | 20c | 171.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabca…cfd1backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 67c | 139.76$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 160 | 36.9%59 W · 101 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 23c | 135.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a54…42f1backed Yes | 55c | 131.62$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.39 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x838a…add1backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 75c | 99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 383 | 56.7%217 W · 166 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b68…795bbacked Yes | 34c | 94.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed Yes | 26c | 93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…a008backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5c…e309backed Yes | 52c | 81.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3282…7716backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…8e0ebacked Yes | 31c | 79.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9342…6e58backed Yes | 34c | 78.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…040ebacked Yes | 25c | 64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 36cpaid | -57%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaf…8b50backed Yes | 26c | 55.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…1f3cbacked Yes | 34c | 52.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…ca96backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…04cbbacked Yes | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…587bbacked No | 75c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…30fabacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…da5ebacked No | 76c | 34.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef2…b798backed No | 75c | 32.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d33…7e8dbacked Yes | 62c | 32.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 283 | 57.2%162 W · 121 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…f1f8backed No | 39c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 206 | 67.5%139 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…e371backed Yes | 54c | 24.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 74c | 23.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 306 | 57.5%176 W · 130 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…f0abbacked No | 76c | 17.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atlético Madrid vs. Botafogo end in a draw?this page
- Will Atlético Madrid beat Botafogo?Yes won
- Will Botafogo beat Atlético Madrid?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.