Champions League · resolved market
Will Botafogo beat Atlético Madrid?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6fbf16808d565458ad71c5eb4fec34ba11e0be527016ae312590bafc15197e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 15c | 7,744$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,124.77 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 19c | 3,050$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.5 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f137backed Yes | 16c | 2,458$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 18c | 1,750$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca0…140ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,378$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x975e…0fe6backed Yes | 18c | 1,028$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe75…baa9backed Yes | 14c | 905.79$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb686…9130backed Yes | 21c | 753.38$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…1b66backed Yes | 21c | 718.07$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.76 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked Yes | 26c | 662.96$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ef…b4d9backed Yes | 17c | 588.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf662…3e84backed Yes | 17c | 520.53$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 20c | 506.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a3…350ebacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5270…4c8bbacked Yes | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 75c | 464$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Yes | 17c | 399.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…7bd9backed Yes | 19c | 393.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ab…13abbacked Yes | 18c | 388.89$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 19c | 378.58$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe1…3b9ebacked Yes | 14c | 377.47$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed Yes | 18c | 277.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…0193backed Yes | 18c | 270.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…6939backed Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb414…da07backed Yes | 18c | 222.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed Yes | 17c | 190.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Yes | 7c | 179.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4116…330abacked Yes | 17c | 171.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…487cbacked Yes | 18c | 154.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb0…7652backed Yes | 17c | 152.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…8e0ebacked Yes | 16c | 139.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2515…a008backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3282…7716backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…f8f3backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9342…6e58backed Yes | 19c | 105.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…f540backed Yes | 17c | 104.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…30fabacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed Yes | 18c | 92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf390…78c8backed Yes | 18c | 83.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdec3…ebc5backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…4cd9backed Yes | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…3b47backed Yes | 17c | 71.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…05b2backed Yes | 19c | 61.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 228 | 47.8%109 W · 119 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…bbeebacked Yes | 25c | 40.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Botafogo beat Atlético Madrid?this page
- Will Atlético Madrid beat Botafogo?Yes won
- Will Atlético Madrid vs. Botafogo end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.