La Liga · resolved market
Will Alaves win on 2025-09-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbb1313dc06f47142ce4e59850c97403c7c7f8c43c297a10548e9ef7f2dfcf37
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,233
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,233 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 76c | 3,562$2,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.59 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 30c | 2,071$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.45 | 155 | 16.1%25 W · 130 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 1c | 2,001$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 72c | 2,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.99 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd836…ea78backed Yes | 28c | 1,476$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…4c44backed Yes | 28c | 714.29$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9342…6e58backed Yes | 32c | 625$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 28c | 567.25$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.85 | 400 | 33.5%134 W · 266 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 25c | 380.27$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.37 | 290 | 38.6%112 W · 178 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 78c | 355$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 140 | 67.1%94 W · 46 L | +17.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Yes | 32c | 309.69$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked No | 71c | 298.73$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.63 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked No | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe23…4489backed Yes | 30c | 188.87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…bb33backed No | 74c | 182.43$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 26c | 141.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.87 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 269 | 30.5%82 W · 187 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd00…e43ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…1c65backed Yes | 28c | 97.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -65%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb405…8771backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 370 | 39.2%145 W · 225 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 72c | 50.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 157 | 50.3%79 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a2…a3e0backed Yes | 33c | 33.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 112 | 61.6%69 W · 43 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…435dbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 144 | 62.5%90 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66e0…105dbacked No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 171 | 55%94 W · 77 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 72c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alaves win on 2025-09-27?this page
- Will Mallorca vs. Alaves end in a draw?No won
- Will Mallorca win on 2025-09-27?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.