Tennis · resolved market
European Open: Eliot Spizzirri vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaefdc662f7c5d3cf901220dba3f6f77d4932a071a4a0a1ae2523b5bf8d3c1e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auger-Aliassimeof Spizzirri, Auger-Aliassime
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Spizzirri | 8c | 10,882$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.17 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked Auger-Aliassime | 74c | 4,000$2,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 443 | 60%266 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Spizzirri | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Spizzirri | 25c | 2,260$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.76 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Auger-Aliassime | 75c | 2,257$1,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.25 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Spizzirri | 24c | 1,999$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.76 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Spizzirri | 26c | 1,538$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Spizzirri | 3c | 1,466$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Spizzirri | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Auger-Aliassime | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x991a…50b1backed Auger-Aliassime | 77c | 844.16$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Spizzirri | 24c | 796.35$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.12 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Auger-Aliassime | 75c | 600$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…802cbacked Spizzirri | 25c | 467.72$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.93 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Spizzirri | 26c | 430.37$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Auger-Aliassime | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e042backed Auger-Aliassime | 75c | 269.91$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 749 | 61.8%463 W · 286 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Spizzirri | 25c | 228.92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Spizzirri | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Spizzirri | 24c | 135.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Auger-Aliassime | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Auger-Aliassime | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked Auger-Aliassime | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Spizzirri | 27c | 120.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Spizzirri | 24c | 103$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7753…73cebacked Auger-Aliassime | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 236 | 70.8%167 W · 69 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Auger-Aliassime | 77c | 89$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Spizzirri | 23c | 81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Auger-Aliassime | 74c | 71.15$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Auger-Aliassime | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Spizzirri | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Auger-Aliassime | 75c | 53.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Spizzirri | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adc…8f9abacked Auger-Aliassime | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x963a…fc4cbacked Auger-Aliassime | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Auger-Aliassime | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.