Tennis · resolved market
Will Alexander Bublik win the 2025 ATP Kitzbuhel tournament?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfaf1132ccba251fe3fbed92dddd2a2c28c9c7a783ce3b42ee8b7ba6135c7e9f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,299
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 6,155$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Yes | 78c | 1,500$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.26 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 25c | 848.79$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.8 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…12debacked No | 26c | 691.6$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 22c | 680$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…1448backed Yes | 74c | 673$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.98 | 95 | 70.5%67 W · 28 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 22c | 533$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.26 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 23c | 489.95$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.69 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39de…71f3backed Yes | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Yes | 77c | 288.65$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 318 | 50.3%160 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…5105backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | +11.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +417.6%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 642 | 40.2%258 W · 384 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Yes | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…28c3backed Yes | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 167 | 61.1%102 W · 65 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 11,325 | 43.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L | +18.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…0495backed Yes | 74c | 17.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 66cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.