South American Leagues · resolved market
CA River Plate vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb5c5163add9bd49a3f143c075ab2cf213d148eab9df19cb7e72df1f584dd5c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 20c | 718.8$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.29 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 35c | 553.65$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.14 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d43…920fbacked Under | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…152abacked Under | 64c | 454.71$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.7 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 35c | 443.01$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.62 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…6e5bbacked Over | 15c | 373.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.02 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 31c | 315.96$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Over | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 108 | 19.4%21 W · 87 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 16c | 249.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9f…21f7backed Under | 66c | 222.38$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 70c | 204.92$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 66c | 196.08$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 11c | 172.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8293…aaeebacked Over | 31c | 154.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 46cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 34c | 153$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 77c | 138.56$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 35c | 96.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a65…3340backed Over | 29c | 82.53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 36c | 71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 35c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 35c | 54.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 65c | 52.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 65c | 52.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 66c | 52.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 36c | 51.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 31c | 47.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1956…1ef8backed Over | 35c | 41.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…0a90backed Over | 28c | 40.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -59%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Over | 27c | 38.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 78c | 25.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA River Plate vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 2.5this page
- CA River Plate vs. CA Boca Juniors: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 1.5Under won
- CA River Plate vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: CA Boca Juniors (-1.5)CA River Plate won
- Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)CA Boca Juniors won
- Spread: CA River Plate (-2.5)CA Boca Juniors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.