Tennis · resolved market
Miami Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Jessica Pegula
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb6760336eca58a8444e7e7f6c6745e23bf025d848e3c4d3a2686e47329e8443
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jessica Pegulaof Leylah Fernandez, Jessica Pegula
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $185,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,765 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Leylah Fernandez | 7c | 15,606$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.27 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Leylah Fernandez | 4c | 11,163$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.25 | 377 | 41.4%156 W · 221 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Leylah Fernandez | 4c | 7,544$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.19 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Leylah Fernandez | 3c | 7,500$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.44 | 747 | 43.6%326 W · 421 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe63e…525abacked Leylah Fernandez | 3c | 6,715$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Leylah Fernandez | 0c | 4,352$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Leylah Fernandez | 5c | 4,210$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.02 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Leylah Fernandez | 6c | 3,199$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Leylah Fernandez | 9c | 2,190$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.83 | 1,265 | 29.2%370 W · 895 L | -13.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Leylah Fernandez | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Leylah Fernandez | 15c | 1,861$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.95 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…0b58backed Leylah Fernandez | 5c | 1,677$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 127 | 22%28 W · 99 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Leylah Fernandez | 13c | 1,154$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Leylah Fernandez | 13c | 930.18$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.87 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Leylah Fernandez | 8c | 734.34$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.05 | 389 | 31.4%122 W · 267 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Leylah Fernandez | 13c | 656.71$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.66 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Leylah Fernandez | 9c | 629.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Leylah Fernandez | 13c | 554.91$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.14 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Leylah Fernandez | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Leylah Fernandez | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Leylah Fernandez | 10c | 497.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Leylah Fernandez | 13c | 401$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 203 | 36%73 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…fef0backed Leylah Fernandez | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 226 | 34.5%78 W · 148 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Leylah Fernandez | 13c | 367.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…b96bbacked Leylah Fernandez | 14c | 353$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…77eebacked Leylah Fernandez | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 819 | 33.1%271 W · 548 L | -30.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Leylah Fernandez | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Leylah Fernandez | 15c | 260$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Leylah Fernandez | 13c | 253$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 1,028 | 33.6%345 W · 683 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Leylah Fernandez | 13c | 240$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 161 | 46.6%75 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Leylah Fernandez | 14c | 237.59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3918…b552backed Leylah Fernandez | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Leylah Fernandez | 12c | 175$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b36…e95ebacked Leylah Fernandez | 9c | 116.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Leylah Fernandez | 15c | 106$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 332 | 41.6%138 W · 194 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Leylah Fernandez | 15c | 104.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Leylah Fernandez | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Leylah Fernandez | 15c | 96.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Leylah Fernandez | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 299 | 47.5%142 W · 157 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Leylah Fernandez | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 347 | 44.4%154 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa26…564fbacked Leylah Fernandez | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Open: Leylah Fernandez vs Jessica Pegulathis page
- Fernandez vs. Pegula: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Fernandez vs. Pegula: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Fernandez vs PegulaPegula won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.