Tennis · resolved market
ITF Amstelveen: Maria Sara Popa vs Lia Karatancheva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb6cf648684c79a55f4ac5316dffc77ecbb99d2e6bfd79197e8d46aba63d3b29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maria Sara Popaof Maria Sara Popa, Lia Karatancheva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lia Karatancheva | 18c | 930.61$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.51 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Lia Karatancheva | 10c | 679.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Maria Sara Popa | 45c | 392.38$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.19 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Maria Sara Popa | 74c | 344.67$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.93 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed Lia Karatancheva | 55c | 258.73$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.3 | 1,883 | 44.8%843 W · 1,040 L | +36.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Lia Karatancheva | 18c | 185$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 153 | 37.9%58 W · 95 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Lia Karatancheva | 51c | 119.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.79 | 354 | 57.3%203 W · 151 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Lia Karatancheva | 27c | 118.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Maria Sara Popa | 46c | 117.18$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.62 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…400bbacked Lia Karatancheva | 25c | 105.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 346 | 27.7%96 W · 250 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Lia Karatancheva | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Lia Karatancheva | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,179 | 52.8%623 W · 556 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Lia Karatancheva | 22c | 97.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 6,840 | 48.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L | +58.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Maria Sara Popa | 73c | 82.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Maria Sara Popa | 49c | 59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 249 | 28.9%72 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Lia Karatancheva | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2,089 | 52.2%1,090 W · 999 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Lia Karatancheva | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Lia Karatancheva | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,349 | 49.8%672 W · 677 L | -6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Lia Karatancheva | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,772 | 52.1%923 W · 849 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Lia Karatancheva | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 739 | 51.7%382 W · 357 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Maria Sara Popa | 48c | 49.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Lia Karatancheva | 23c | 48.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 5,422 | 56.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L | +231.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Lia Karatancheva | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Maria Sara Popa | 58c | 46.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Maria Sara Popa | 63c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Maria Sara Popa | 66c | 31.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Lia Karatancheva | 55c | 31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac06…f93dbacked Lia Karatancheva | 46c | 28.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Lia Karatancheva | 55c | 23.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 196 | 56.6%111 W · 85 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Maria Sara Popa | 54c | 21.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3a1bbacked Maria Sara Popa | 67c | 17.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 273 | 63.4%173 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.