Bundesliga · resolved market
SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb807e19b28bbdda323194aa995436e413d8b7c307c1187eef26a2544899c525
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,917
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,917 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 29c | 1,983$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.32 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ba…d291backed Over | 66c | 1,800$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.08 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 20c | 1,460$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.32 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Under | 20c | 932.23$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.34 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 20c | 597.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.93 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 19c | 443.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.36 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 22c | 376.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 70c | 285.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 19c | 254.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…511fbacked Over | 80c | 201.51$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f91…20ccbacked Over | 79c | 154$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Over | 79c | 101$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Over | 79c | 77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 65c | 67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Over | 79c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -42%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Over | 76c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Over | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 1.5this page
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 2.5Under won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 3.5Under won
- SG Dynamo Dresden vs. SpVgg Greuther Fürth: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.